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Metal beverage cans have proved popular in alcoholic drinks. Metal beverage cans are less fragile than glass bottles which makes them suitable for transport and storage. They are also cost-effective. As a result, metal beverage cans are widely regarded as the most cost-effective solution for beer, wines, RTDs, and even spirits.

In dairy, premiumization gained momentum, with most innovation seen in yogurt. Yogurt enjoyed several new product releases including specialty, desert-shaped containers, upgraded bottle designs in terms of both aesthetics and ergonomics, and plastic caps containing chocolate sweet treats for mixing.

In beauty and personal care, large packs offering big value appeal to price-sensitive consumers in 2020. Several players announced the introduction of larger packaging types to target a broader consumer base. The trend was particularly significant in hair care. Standard shampoos and conditioners are often shared by entire families, allowing the purchase of large bottles to be used by everyone in the household.

ANVISA, Brazil’s national health surveillance agency, proposed a new system along the lines of color-coding seen in other countries, including neighboring regions such as Chile. ANVISA has repeatedly pointed out that simple warnings against sugar, sodium, and fat content on the packaging are insufficient, and has suggested the traffic light model with green, yellow, or red colors for low, medium, and high content, along with the standard nutritional data. However, the idea has been subject to severe backlash from the food and beverages industry out of fear of substantial drops in the consumption of certain products.

Sustainability as a trend has led to Brazilian consumers showing greater concern for eco-friendly products. This further pushed the players to research and develop new alternatives and new types of plastics. Earth Renewable Technologies (ERT) produces plastics of plant origin, and already enjoys a strong presence in Europe and the U.S. The company claims that its plastics are fully biodegraded within six months. It is hoped that the biopolymer material will reduce dependence on environmentally harmful plastics and will encourage a zero-waste movement, as both producers and consumers shift away from non-degradable plastic waste.

Recyclability of packaging designs remains a challenge as packs are made of many layers and not all layers are suitable for the recycling process. Thus, separating all layers before recycling is a huge challenge. The industry is discussing the adoption of indexes of less than 5% of barrier materials to increase recyclability potential. Specialists highlight that this could be a risk for perishable products or goods, which need robust barriers during the distribution chain. Such a reduction could result in shorter shelf life for many products, which would be damaging to many companies. Resolving this issue is important as sustainability efforts receive pushback.

In a case related to CNI (Confederação Nacional das Industrias), the high court denied their claim that the mandatory labeling of genetically modified food is unconstitutional on a federal level and that the decision should therefore be left to state and city authorities. The law in Brazil stipulates that any food or beverage made for human consumption, and which contains over 1% of any modified organism, must be labeled as genetically modified. The vote was tied in the Supreme Federal Court and the judgment was suspended.

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• Beauty and Personal Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby care, bath & shower products, deodorants, hair care, color cosmetics, men's grooming products, oral hygiene, perfumes & fragrances, skincare, depilatories, and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.
• Dog and Cat Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of dog and cat food packaging.
• Packaged Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby food, Bakery, canned/preserved beans, canned/preserved fish/seafood, canned/preserved fruit, canned/preserved meat and meat products, canned/preserved tomatoes, canned/preserved vegetables, other canned/preserved food, confectionery, chilled fish/seafood, chilled lunch kit, chilled processed meats, fresh cut fruits, dairy, dessert mixes, rice, frozen bakery, frozen desserts, frozen meat substitutes, frozen processed fish/seafood, frozen processed potatoes, frozen processed poultry, frozen processed red meat, frozen processed vegetables, other frozen processed food, ice cream, meal replacement, noodles, oils and fats, pasta, ready meals, sauces, dressings and condiments, snack bars, soup, spreads and sweet and savory snacks.
• Home Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for laundry care, dishwashing products, surface care, chlorine bleach, toilet care, polishes, air fresheners, and insecticides. 
• Beverages Packaging: Beverage packaging is the aggregation of alcoholic drinks packaging, hot drinks packaging, and soft drinks packaging.

• Presentation at the point of sale is becoming extremely significant since capturing impulsive buyers and buyers who lack brand knowledge is important. Stand-up pouches with zip/press closures are convenient to use as well as This is especially true for smaller packages ranging from 500g to 2.5kg. Bigger packs are still sold in flexible plastic, but brands are innovating with design and graphic print on the packaging. As a result, flexible packaging grew by 15.5% by volume in the dog and cat food industry in 2020.
• Metal food cans are predominantly used in wet dog and cat food, but with the rise of smaller pack sizes, flexible plastic has emerged as a new favorite. Another usage of flexible pack types is fractionated packs, such as 10 500gm plastic packs put together in a plastic bag to form a 10kg pack size. This allows the consumer to buy a higher volume of food (e.g., 7.7kg/10kg at a time) while maintaining quality and freshness.

• The premiumization of brands is driving value growth in the dog and cat food packaging industry. Consumers are striving for better quality foods for their pets and prefer healthy alternatives such as organic, gluten-free, and additive-free. As a response to this trend, brands are looking at packaging types and design as a tool of differentiation. Pack types with zip/press closures, fractionated packaging, transparent packaging, etc. are perceived as premium by the customers. Thus, companies are focusing on better technology to produce high-quality packaging, as well as using new packaging formats and materials.
• Pet humanization is another trend that is influencing the dog and cat food packaging industry as consumers, especially young consumers, treat their pets like family members. Hence, owners tend to prefer pet food that is more like human food such as vegetables, rice, meat, etc. Companies are focusing on preparing food that looks and feels like fresh human food and has a better shelf life. This trend is pushing the players to develop pack types that will keep the food fresh for a long time. A few brands are introducing transparent packaging as it will help the customers see what the food looks like.

• COVID-19 accelerated the shift from retail stores/outlets to e-commerce. Online shopping has led to the emergence of bulk buying. Pet superstore websites such as Petz and Cobasi and online-exclusive shops such as PetLove are expected to focus on larger pack sizes. These sizes will mostly come in flexible packaging formats as they are easy to transport and easy to deliver to the doorstep.
• Brazilian consumers, particularly those with lower incomes, were already focused on buying dog and cat food pre-COVID-19. Pet owners will continue to buy bigger pack sizes and products that offer better value for money. It is anticipated that this trend will boost demand for affordable and convenient packaging materials such as flexible packaging

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• COVID-19 increased the focus on personal hygiene, leading to more sales of hygiene-related home care products. However, the pandemic-related restrictions created many supply-chain issues. So, to tackle these hurdles, companies switched to flexible plastic, as it is easy to transport and store in automated warehouses. As a result, flexible packaging grew by 3.6% by volume in home care packaging category in 2020.
• Heightened awareness about cleanliness among consumers boosted sales of homecare products such as surface cleaners, toilet care, and dishwashing. These products are mostly sold in flexible pack types, and these packaging segments grew 13.1%, 8.8%, and 18.4% respectively, by volume in 2020.

• Manufacturers, such as Amcor-Bemis, are increasing usage of PET bottles, and flexible pack types for their products in the home care category. This trend is logistics-driven and is efficiently reducing operational costs. Some brands are using PET bottles for economy refills rather than the stand-up pouches commonly used for this purpose. From an operational standpoint, PET bottles as refills lead to lower packaging costs in comparison to multi-layered stand-up pouches and result in more affordable home care products in retail outlets.
• Companies are consistently innovating with eco-friendly and sustainable pack types. Brands like Bio Wash are creating greater awareness of their refillable and recyclable products. This has led to a greater shift towards more sustainable and environmentally friendly packaging, with such options gaining increasing popularity.

• Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) norms and regulations are far from ideal in Brazil. In recent times, companies as well as consumers, especially young consumers, are advocating for effective and empowered ESG guidelines. Water consumption during product usage is carefully observed and improved upon by the companies. With product launches such as concentrated products, packaging companies are anticipated to invest heavily in sustainability, which is expected to reflect in their pack types.
• Recyclability and sustainability are being focused upon by the companies, consumers, and the local government bodies as well. Sustainability is proving particularly important in laundry care packaging. Laundry care has been affected by acute water shortages. Thus, companies launched products that will consume less water such as concentrated liquid detergent in PET bottles. In addition, laundry care is one of the most significant categories for innovation and value-added products. This makes differentiation a key selling point for many products, such as detergents and fabric softeners.

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Insights released by the recent advisory bulletin indicates cause for concern

• According to the World Health Organization (WHO), on May 26, 2022, Brazil had 30,836,815 COVID-19 cases, and 665,905 deaths. The country’s total cases per million inhabitants on the day reached 145,624.
• The recent increase in the number of cases in the country has prompted some municipalities to recommend the usage of masks, with schools also asking students to wear protective items. Newer variants of the virus are currently in circulation which has increased the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, and has led to researchers speculating if the country is in its fourth wave of the pandemic. The country recorded more than 59,000 new cases on Saturday, May 28, 2022.
• In February 2022, the travel ban imposed on travelers arriving from South Africa, Eswatini, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Namibia was removed. On the other hand, the requirements to present a negative PCR test before entering the country have not been altered.
• According to the WHO, Brazil administered a total of 428,405,492 vaccines as of May 20, 2022, with 76.4% of the people being fully vaccinated, while 85.0% of people have received at least one vaccine dose.
• The newest edition of the COVID-19 advisory bulletin released on May 19, 2022 states that the current vaccine coverage against COVID-19 in the adult population is concerning due to stagnated growth rates. Increasing hospitalizations and the emergence of new variants is likely to further aggravate the situation and further warrants the need for protection measures including compulsory wearing of masks.

The chart below shows Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index.

The quarterly reported Recovery Index is a composite index that provides a quick overview of economic and consumer activity. It keeps track of the latest quarterly economic/consumer data and forecasts in key economies to gauge when economic activity and consumer demand are likely to return to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

A score of 100 and over indicates a full recovery in which economic output, the labor market, and consumer spending all return to/exceed 2019 levels.
Detailed methodology is provided in the Appendix.

Quarterly Recovery Index and Related Indicators, Brazil

Click here for more detailed information from Euromonitor on the overview of COVID-19 conditions in Brazil

This graph shows our “most probable” and “worst case” estimate scenarios of how COVID-19 will impact real GDP value in Brazil. Our “most probable” or Baseline scenario has an estimated probability of 45-60% over a one-year horizon. Our “worst case” or Pessimistic scenario has an estimated probability of 13-23% over a one-year horizon. For more details, please refer to the detailed explanation of the COVID-19 scenarios in the Scenario Definitions section.

Please note that the forecasts will be adjusted every three months, according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in this country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions (the most recent update was May 2022).

Baseline forecast refers to the “best case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

C19 Pessimistic refers to the “worst-case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 13-23%.

Brazil is expected to witness slow economic growth in the medium term

• Over 2019-2020, commodity prices in Brazil surged as a result of global supply chain disruptions resulting in inflation. The ongoing effect of the pandemic on global commodity prices in 2021 further elevated the inflation rate in the country. Over 2021, inflation in Brazil increased to 8.3% from 3.2% in the previous year. It is anticipated that the general election in 2022 will heighten government spending and cause an inflationary spiral in the country.
• Expectations are that the inflation rate in Brazil will fall to 3.5% by 2026, although this will depend greatly upon the war in Ukraine and its repercussions on global commodity prices.
• In the medium term, Brazil’s economy is expected to perform worse than the rest of Latin America with forecast average annual real GDP growth of 1.6% over 2022-2026. In comparison, average annual real GDP growth for Argentina and Colombia is expected to be 2% and 3.5%, respectively. Higher inflation and drought-related disruptions in the Brazilian agricultural sector, among other factors, are predicted to limit the country’s medium-term economic growth.

Please note that the forecasts are adjusted every three months according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions.

The graph below shows the adjusted forecasts of the percentage growth for the categories mentioned, highlighting the impact of COVID-19 between our pre-COVID-19 estimates and the “most probable” (Baseline) forecast, which has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

Baseline forecast refers to the “best case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

Demand for cooking ingredients and meals, alcoholic drinks, and home care products is expected to surge over the forecast period

• The rising popularity of the health and wellness trend during the initial stages of the pandemic encouraged Brazilians to cook fresh, nutritious meals at home. Over 2021, most consumers realized that preparing meals at home was cheaper than ordering food online. This elevated the consumption of cooking ingredients (sauces, dry herbs, and spices) and meals over 2019-2021. These factors are expected to influence consumers’ purchasing decisions in 2022 as well. It is anticipated that retail sales of cooking ingredients and meals will increase by 45% over 2019-2022.
• The pandemic might have had a devastating effect on certain industries, such as tobacco, but it managed to boost sales of alcoholic drinks in the country. Over 2019-2021, alcoholic beverages enjoyed stable demand among Brazilian consumers. One factor that increased retail sales of alcoholic drinks over the aforementioned years was consumers engaging in stockpiling during the initial stages of the pandemic. Another pivotal factor was using wine as a cooking ingredient. As the number of COVID-19 cases is subsiding and normalcy is returning in 2022, it is expected that the consumption of alcoholic drinks will increase over the year as Brazilians are back to celebrating special occasions and socializing with friends. It is anticipated that retail sales of alcoholic drinks will increase by 55% over 2019-2022.
• Over 2019-2021, Brazil witnessed three waves of the pandemic. This created a surge in demand for household disinfectants as people took conscious efforts to keep their homes clean to remain protected from the virus. There was also increased consumer desire to create a soothing and pleasant environment at home. These factors expanded retail sales of home care products, such as air freshners and scented candles, over the aforementioned period. It is anticipated that retail sales of home care products will increase by 5% over 2019-2022.

Please note that the forecasts are adjusted every three months according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions.

This graph shows our “most probable” and “worst case” estimate scenarios of how COVID-19 will impact the percentage growth for the sectors covered in Brazil. Our “most probable,” or Baseline scenario, has an estimated probability of 45-60% over a one-year horizon. Our “worst case,” or Pessimistic scenario, has an estimated probability of 13-23% over a one-year horizon.

Baseline forecast refers to the “best case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

C19 Pessimistic refers to the “worst-case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 13-23%.

Rising health-consciousness among consumers bolsters demand for consumer health products over 2019-2022

• The onset of the pandemic brought a pivotal shift in the mindset of Brazilian consumers. Over 2019-2021, Brazilians paid greater attention to the foods they were consuming. As a result, demand for foods that boost immunity, such as vitamins and dietary supplements, increased over 2019-2021.
• The increased prevalence of stress and anxiety among consumers resulting from factors such as financial hardships, social isolation, etc., elevated the demand for analgesics and sleep aids over 2019-2021. It is anticipated that retail sales of consumer health products will increase by more than 10% over 2019-2022.

The following tables display adjusted market size for 2021, market size forecasts for 2022, and the percentage difference between the February 2022 and June 2022 estimates for the year 2022.

Please note that for the current quarterly update, the following table covers beauty and personal care packaging and home care packaging industries only.

Increased demand for home care products and sauces benefits flexible packaging

• Brazil faced the third wave of COVID-19 in 2021. This influenced Brazilian consumers to keep purchasing home care products such as disinfectants to keep their homes clean and stay safe from the virus. In 2021, demand for multi-purpose cleaners and all-purpose cleaning wipes soared, as these products provided convenience to buyers. As a result, key pack types, such as plastic pouches in multi-purpose cleaners and flexible plastic in all-purpose cleaning wipes, witnessed booming demand in 2021, and are expected to perform well in 2022.
• With most Brazilian consumers turning to home cooking, demand for tomato pastes and purées soared in 2020. This benefited aluminum/plastic pouch packaging, which is the primary pack type for these products.
• While stand-up aluminum/plastic pouches packaging has been prevalent in the country for a long time, innovative releases were made, for example in Predilecta’s Sacciali line. The stand-up pouch is in the shape of a glass jar, and the pack comes with a different texture that resembles the texture of glass.

• Beauty and Personal Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby care, bath & shower products, deodorants, hair care, color cosmetics, men's grooming products, oral hygiene, perfumes & fragrances, skin care, depilatories and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.
• Dog and Cat Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of dog and cat food packaging.
• Packaged Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby food, Bakery, canned/preserved beans, canned/preserved fish/seafood, canned/preserved fruit, canned/preserved meat and meat products, canned/preserved tomatoes, canned/preserved vegetables, other canned/preserved food, confectionery, chilled fish/seafood, chilled lunch kit, chilled processed meats, fresh cut fruits, dairy, dessert mixes, rice, frozen bakery, frozen desserts, frozen meat substitutes, frozen processed fish/seafood, frozen processed potatoes, frozen processed poultry, frozen processed red meat, frozen processed vegetables, other frozen processed food, ice cream, meal replacement, noodles, oils and fats, pasta, ready meals, sauces, dressings and condiments, snack bars, soup, spreads and sweet and savory snacks.
• Home care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for laundry care, dishwashing products, surface care, chlorine bleach, toilet care, polishes, air fresheners and insecticides.
• Beverages Packaging: Beverage packaging is the aggregation of alcoholic drinks packaging, hot drinks packaging and soft drinks packaging.

Recovery Index Methodology

Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index is a composite index that provides a quick overview of economic and consumer activity and helps businesses predict recovery in consumer demand in 48 major economies. The index takes into consideration total GDP and factors that determine consumer spending - employment, consumer spending, retail sales, and consumer confidence. Index scores measure the change relative to the average per quarter for 2019.