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The impact of COVID-19 on alcoholic drinks packaging in France was most visible in terms of reduced demand for smaller and on-the-go formats across the board and a shift towards larger packs. The trend was in line with increased at-home consumption and shared family value packs. There was also a spike in sales of multipacks of beer, a highly seasonal drink in France, with the format gaining appeal through its lower unit prices than single servings. As a result, flexible packaging, paper-based containers, and PET bottles benefited from this trend.

The rise in beauty and personal packaging is caused by an initial spike in stockpiling and panic-buying of some products, and continued consumer focus on hygiene-related products to protect against contagion. Growth was largely driven by bath and shower packaging. PET bottles in liquid soap, plastic pouches in body wash/shower gel, flexible paper and flexible plastic in bar soap and collapsible metal tubes in hand care have all shown substantial growth in 2020.

In food and beverages packaging, the inner side of plastic and metal packs is coated with BPA (Bisphenol A) to protect from corrosion caused by acidic food and beverages. In 2015, France banned BPA in metal cans and tins whereas the EU followed suit in 2019. The EU regulation confirms the toxicity of BPA and bans its use on the inside covering of metal tins and metal beverage cans, with a transition period factored in. It also extends the ban of BPA in baby bottles to all plastic cups and packaging for babies.

The rise of refillable packs and reusable packs is driven by start-ups and premium brands. Premium brands are shifting towards refillable packs especially in fragrance packaging. Refillable stations for shampoo, liquid soap, and personal care products at the point of sale are becoming common in France. Natural brand Panier des Sens has introduced such a system in three of its stores, dispensing its flagship Liquid Marseille Soap. In home care, liquid detergents, liquid surface cleaners, and toilet cleaners are available for a refill at the point of sale. In dog and cat food, the movement of refillable packs has yet to pick up, but a few start-ups and private label brands have started the movement by offering dry dog and cat food in retail stores.

Consumer concerns over the safety of ingredients contributed to the demand for greater transparency and clean labels. A smartphone brand called Yuka enables customers to scan products’ labels and get product details such as the origin of a product, listed ingredients, cruelty-free and vegan-friendly nature, and certified sustainable materials in packaging.

Rising demand for ‘free-from” products continued, as consumers sought to avoid ingredients that are perceived as being potentially damaging to both health and the environment. Due to the often-misleading nature of free-from claims, EU regulations were updated in July 2019 to prohibit certain claims from appearing on beauty and personal care labels and packaging. For example, labels may also no longer carry “free from allergens” or “hypoallergenic” claims since there is no guarantee that ingredients will never cause an allergic reaction in some consumers.

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• Beauty and Personal Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby care, bath & shower products, deodorants, hair care, color cosmetics, men's grooming products, oral hygiene, perfumes & fragrances, skincare, depilatories, and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.
• Dog and Cat Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of dog and cat food packaging.
• Packaged Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby food, Bakery, canned/preserved beans, canned/preserved fish/seafood, canned/preserved fruit, canned/preserved meat and meat products, canned/preserved tomatoes, canned/preserved vegetables, other canned/preserved food, confectionery, chilled fish/seafood, chilled lunch kit, chilled processed meats, fresh cut fruits, dairy, dessert mixes, rice, frozen bakery, frozen desserts, frozen meat substitutes, frozen processed fish/seafood, frozen processed potatoes, frozen processed poultry, frozen processed red meat, frozen processed vegetables, other frozen processed food, ice cream, meal replacement, noodles, oils and fats, pasta, ready meals, sauces, dressings and condiments, snack bars, soup, spreads and sweet and savory snacks.
• Home Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for laundry care, dishwashing products, surface care, chlorine bleach, toilet care, polishes, air fresheners, and insecticides. 
• Beverages Packaging: Beverage packaging is the aggregation of alcoholic drinks packaging, hot drinks packaging, and soft drinks packaging.

• Stand-up pouches performed well in 2020 owing to their stackable nature and low cost. Pet food companies are facing competition for shelf space at retail stores in France. Their stackable nature makes stand-up pouchessave up to three times more space compared to other packaging materials. Moreover, they are easier and cheaper to transport and store. As a result, stand-up pouches grew by 3.0% by volume in 2020.
• The pet humanization trend, where pets are treated as humans, is supporting the premiumization of dog and cat food. Pet owners are paying more attention to ingredients and nutrients in the food. The look and feel of packaging are becoming more premium as manufacturers adopt pack formats that can improve the visibility of their products on retail shelves and help them stand out. This can be seen in the rise of stand-up pouches, but also in the increasing usage of zip/press closures, which are perceived as more convenient in terms of resealable nature, and ease of transport and storage.

• In wet dog food, smaller pack sizes in pet food are gaining popularity in France. The pet humanization trend increased the awareness of the benefits of grain-free/gluten-free and organic pet foods. This is leading to premiumization as these newer niche pet products are significantly more expensive for both manufacturers as well consumers. As a result, smaller attractive pack sizes are gaining popularity. On the other hand, in dry dog and cat food, which is considered as a staple food for cats and dogs, very large pack sizes, such as 15kg and 20kg, are growing in popularity as consumers are increasingly ordering their pet food online.
• As the number of pet stores and superstores continues to grow, specialist retailers have started introducing individual/single servings. These treats are made to look fresh and “home-made,” and so that they can be sold at premium prices. This is following the trend seen in organic grocery stores, where staples and pulses are available in individual/single servings.

• Innovations and new start-ups are expected to rise in dog and cat food with a focus on the need for sustainability. For example, the New Loop online store, one of the prominent dog and cat food brands in the country, delivers food in durable reusable packaging that can be returned to be filled up again, with repeated subsequent reuse. Many brands are expected to follow suit over 2021-25. Such initiatives are expected to create more awareness and are aimed at achieving a circular economy.  

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• The economic impact of the pandemic decreased the purchasing power of consumers. In home care categories such as laundry detergents, companies focused mainly on medium-to-large pack sizes as they provide better value for money in terms of cost-saving benefits for consumers. This trend benefited flexible packaging as most large packs come in flexible packaging. As a result, flexible packaging grew by 3.8% by volume in 2020.

• Bulk unpackaged sales have attracted consumer attention owing to their economical price and no-waste model. Many retailers are at a trial stage with bulk sales. The Naked Shop was the first French shop specializing in bulk liquid personal care and home care products. The store features automated dispensers, with consumers using reusable packaging with deposits and seeing the price in real-time as they fill these containers.
• Consumers have become more hygiene conscious because of the presence of the virus and look to keep their household environments clean. Many people are spending more time than usual in their homes due to lockdowns and closures of foodservice establishments. Thus, at-home consumption of meals significantly increased and has contributed to the rise in cleaning and washing utensils at home. As a result, home care categories like surface care and dishwashing saw an 11.6% and 11.4% by volume growth in sales respectively in 2020, as a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• The French government introduced a law that imposes standards on industry players to minimize waste levels and enforce the reuse of materials. This law mandates lower consumption of non-renewable resources, the reuse of waste as a resource, products that have a longer useful life, the recycling of 100% of plastics, and producing less waste. More innovation is therefore expected in terms of the development and provision of sustainable packaging solutions. The law aims to achieve 100% plastic recycling by 2025 as well as an end to the usage of single-use plastic packaging by 2040. As a result, refill packs, concentrated formulas, thinner plastic pouches, and formats made from recyclable materials are expected to gain share in-home care packaging
• Smaller pack sizes are expected to witness strong new product development due to the launch of a widening range of products. Smaller pack sizes such as single-serve packs are expected to continue to proliferate on the grounds of the convenience of on-the-go consumption over 2021-25.

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France decides to lift the requirements for wearing masks on public transport

• According to the World Health Organization (WHO), France had 28,540,945 COVID-19 cases, with 144,781 deaths, and 438,257 cases per million inhabitants as of May 2022.
• The French government declared that due to the changing epidemiological situation, wearing a mask will no longer be required on subways, buses, or trains starting May 16. However, according to the government, wearing a mask will remain necessary for caregivers, patients, and visitors to health and care facilities, including hospitals, pharmacies, and medical biology laboratories.
• According to the WHO, the total number of vaccines as of May 15, 2022, stood at 147,595,541, which translates to 3 fully vaccinated persons per 100 people.

The chart below shows Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index.

The quarterly reported Recovery Index is a composite index that provides a quick overview of economic and consumer activity. It keeps track of the latest quarterly economic/consumer data and forecasts in key economies to gauge when economic activity and consumer demand are likely to return to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

A score of 100 and over indicates a full recovery in which economic output, the labor market, and consumer spending all return to/exceed 2019 levels.
Detailed methodology is provided in the Appendix.

Quarterly Recovery Index and Related Indicators, France

Click here for more detailed information from Euromonitor on the overview of COVID-19 conditions in France

This graph shows our “most probable” and “worst case” estimate scenarios of how COVID-19 will impact the real GDP value in France. Our “most probable” or Baseline scenario has an estimated probability of 45-60% over a one-year horizon. Our “worst case” or Pessimistic scenario has an estimated probability of 13-23% over a one-year horizon. For more details, please refer to the detailed explanation of the COVID-19 scenarios in the Scenario Definitions section.

Please note that the forecasts will be adjusted every three months, according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in this country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions (the most recent update was May 2022).

Baseline forecast refers to the “best case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

C19 Pessimistic refers to the “worst-case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 13-23%.

Improving private consumption is set to facilitate further recovery in France

• France's real GDP increased by 7.4% in 2021, outpacing Western Europe's average growth of 5.7%. Household consumer spending, buoyed by a successful vaccine rollout and reducing restrictions, as well as a solid increase in investment, drove the recovery. The government's EUR100 billion "France Relance" long-term recovery plan, announced in September 2020 and mostly funded by the EU, aided in cushioning the economic shock and facilitating recovery.
• In 2021, France's GDP per capita was USD44,884, which was higher than the regional average. Despite the risks of new infection waves and global supply chain disruptions, the recovery in private consumption is likely to continue in 2022, with favorable financing conditions and funds from the "France Relance" program supporting public and private investment. In October 2021, the government also unveiled a new EUR30 billion 5-year investment plan dubbed "France 2030." The strategy intends to boost French industrial activity in the automotive, aerospace, digital technology, biotechnology, and healthcare sectors by facilitating a green transition.
• Inflation in France surged to 2.0% in 2021, up from 0.5% the previous year due to rising energy and raw material prices, as well as supply bottlenecks. In 2021, the most significant price increases were seen in alcoholic drinks and tobacco products, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and hospitality services.

Please note that the forecasts are adjusted every three months according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions.

The graph below shows the adjusted forecasts of the percentage growth for the categories mentioned, highlighting the impact of COVID-19 between our pre-COVID-19 estimates and the “most probable” (Baseline) forecast, which has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

Baseline forecast refers to the “best case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

Soft drinks and beauty and personal care continue to suffer from the pandemic’s impact on demand

• Having plunged dramatically in 2020, retail value sales of beauty and personal care products continued to fall in 2021, albeit at a considerably slower pace, with a 5.8% decline over 2019-2022, according to Euromonitor’s Baseline scenario forecast. COVID-19 dominated the first quarter of 2021 once more, with curfews imposed from 6 pm from January 1 to March 30, forcing non-essential retail enterprises to close. Even after these restrictions were removed, demand remained low; the fact that many people continued to wear face masks, as well as the extensive work-from-home measures, contributed significantly to this.
• Soft drinks suffer from a poor image associated with excessive sugar content. According to Euromonitor International's Voice of the Consumer: Health and Nutrition 2021 Survey, there are a variety of health reasons behind the sugar reduction trend, which had a negative influence on soft drinks consumption. 50% of customers say they are reducing sugar consumption for weight loss or management, 45% believe it is healthier for them to avoid certain ingredients, and 38% say they have read or heard it is harmful to consume. As a result, the health and wellness trend had a negative influence on the demand for various soft drinks categories, resulting in an overall decrease of 0.3% over 2019-2022.

Please note that the forecasts are adjusted every three months according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions.

This graph shows our “most probable” and “worst case” estimate scenarios of how COVID-19 will impact the percentage growth for the sectors covered in France. Our “most probable,” or Baseline scenario, has an estimated probability of 45-60% over a one-year horizon. Our “worst case,” or Pessimistic scenario, has an estimated probability of 13-23% over a one-year horizon.

Baseline forecast refers to the “best case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

C19 Pessimistic refers to the “worst-case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 13-23%.

Retail sales continue to benefit as consumers are still focused on home consumption

• The unavailability of cafés, specialty coffee and tea shops, and other on-trade outlets as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and part of 2021, boosted off-trade demand for coffee, with retail growth rates in the category for 2020 and 2021 being the most dynamic. In this context, it is worth noting that many consumers preferred to focus on premium coffee options to recreate the café coffee experience in the comfort of their own homes. This is in line with consumers’ need to indulge themselves in response to the harsh and challenging situations that emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Retail sales of some alcoholic drinks benefited from the negative impact of on-trade sales, with consumers forced to drink at home rather than in cafés/bars, nightclubs, or full-service restaurants. Craft beer, ales, Anglo-Saxon beer, and non/low alcohol beer, in particular, showed substantial off-trade increases due to growing interest and demand. Bitter spirits (such as Aperol and English gin) and sweet spirits (such as flavored and/or “finished” black rum) were also popular in 2020/2021, benefiting from the popularity of alcoholic cocktails and a brief trend of sipping drinks while talking with friends via video conference applications such as Zoom.

The following tables display adjusted market size for 2021, market size forecasts for 2022, and the percentage difference between the February 2022 and June 2022 estimates for the year 2022.

Please note that for the current quarterly update, the following table covers beauty and personal care packaging and home care packaging industries only.

Innovation and improvements in home care appliances and products could influence packaging developments

• As a direct result of the emergence of COVID-19 in France, sales of a variety of home care categories, such as surface care and dishwashing, increased in 2020/2021. As a result of the virus, consumers became more hygiene conscious and sought to keep their homes clean, especially given that many people were spending more time than usual in their homes, and at-home meal consumption increased significantly as a result of lockdowns and foodservice establishment closures, implying more cooking and cleaning in a domestic setting.
• Another important category that experienced high growth during the pandemic was home care disinfectants, which saw a major sales rise in 2020, followed by further dynamic growth in 2021, due to increased health and hygiene awareness. As a result, during the pandemic, packaging unit volumes of HDPE bottles used in home care disinfectants increased significantly. In 2022, the performance of home care disinfectants and HDPE bottles is projected to remain high.
• Over the forecast period, French customers are likely to become more environmentally conscious, prompting manufacturers to develop new and inventive packaging. For example, new product introductions in laundry care and dishwashing could be sparked by improvements in home laundry appliances and dishwashers that cater to the increased demand for time savings, sustainability, and energy efficiency. This is expected to benefit the packaging unit volumes of key pack types such as plastic pouches in dishwashing and laundry care over the forecast period.

• Beauty and Personal Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby care, bath & shower products, deodorants, hair care, color cosmetics, men's grooming products, oral hygiene, perfumes & fragrances, skin care, depilatories and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.
• Dog and Cat Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of dog and cat food packaging.
• Packaged Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby food, Bakery, canned/preserved beans, canned/preserved fish/seafood, canned/preserved fruit, canned/preserved meat and meat products, canned/preserved tomatoes, canned/preserved vegetables, other canned/preserved food, confectionery, chilled fish/seafood, chilled lunch kit, chilled processed meats, fresh cut fruits, dairy, dessert mixes, rice, frozen bakery, frozen desserts, frozen meat substitutes, frozen processed fish/seafood, frozen processed potatoes, frozen processed poultry, frozen processed red meat, frozen processed vegetables, other frozen processed food, ice cream, meal replacement, noodles, oils and fats, pasta, ready meals, sauces, dressings and condiments, snack bars, soup, spreads and sweet and savory snacks.
• Home care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for laundry care, dishwashing products, surface care, chlorine bleach, toilet care, polishes, air fresheners and insecticides.
• Beverages Packaging: Beverage packaging is the aggregation of alcoholic drinks packaging, hot drinks packaging and soft drinks packaging.

Recovery Index Methodology

Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index is a composite index that provides a quick overview of economic and consumer activity and helps businesses predict recovery in consumer demand in 48 major economies. The index takes into consideration total GDP and factors that determine consumer spending - employment, consumer spending, retail sales, and consumer confidence. Index scores measure the change relative to the average per quarter for 2019.