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Beauty and personal care have seen a rise in demand for smaller packs in some product areas. The trend, accelerated by COVID-19, was underway before the pandemic as consumers shifted to pocket-sized cosmetics and fragrances, as well as deodorants, for on-the-go application. Bottled water is consumed mainly by urban consumers, particularly those in first-tier cities, many of whom have been shifting away from the use of purified tap water and towards the purchase of water in 20-liter PET bottles. With Indian citizens more likely to switch houses more frequently during their lifetimes, bottled water in bulk has greater appeal than installed water purifiers, which must be serviced and have their filters changed regularly.

While glass remained the dominant pack type for alcoholic drinks due to its traditional use, demand is beginning to slowly shift away from the packaging material. The move has been spurred by industry players’ experimentation with different pack types as they sought to reach out to new consumer bases while expanding the range of consumption occasions across all alcoholic drinks categories. Metal beverage cans and brick liquid cartons are expected to grow at the cost of glass bottles in alcoholic drinks and they are likely to remain the most dynamic pack types over the 2021-2025 period.

In January 2019, India announced new regulations about food packaging. Key points centered around migration limits for certain contaminants in plastic packaging materials, pigments, and colorants used in packaging and printing ink and specific migration limits for metal containments in plastic materials to meet EU limits. Specifically, plastic migration limits have been set at 60mg/kg or 10mg/dm2 (1dm2 = 0.01m2), with no visible color migration; pigments or colorants for uses in plastic in contact with food particles and drinking water must conform to the new standards, as must printing inks used in food packaging.

Consumer awareness of plastic waste and its pollutant effects is growing and a slow transition towards a more conscious consumption continues. In response, several companies have been swift to introduce products presented in sustainable packaging. Beauty and personal care player SoulTree is one of the first companies to introduce color cosmetics such as Kajal and lipstick in recyclable packaging instead of the commonly used specialty cosmetic containers. They have also introduced biodegradable packaging, which can decompose naturally. Similarly, Soapworks India now packages all of its products in tin or cardboard and parcels them in newspaper and duct tape in place of bubble-wrap and plastic tape, ensuring packaging is completely plastic-free.

Alcohol packaging is prohibited from positive claims. The FSSAI regulates alcoholic drinks in India to help protect the health and safety of consumers. Under the Food Product Safety & Standards (Alcoholic Beverages Standard) Regulations 2018, the FSSAI looks to ensure that new rules are adhered to. The most recent regulation that specifies labeling requirements for beverages containing more than 0.5 percent alcohol by volume includes the declaration of the product’s alcohol content; that it does not contain any nutritional information; that there are no positive health claims; a restriction on the word “non-intoxicating” or words implying similar meaning; and an allergen and statutory warning.

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• Beauty and Personal Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby care, bath & shower products, deodorants, hair care, color cosmetics, men's grooming products, oral hygiene, perfumes & fragrances, skincare, depilatories, and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.
• Dog and Cat Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of dog and cat food packaging.
• Packaged Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby food, Bakery, canned/preserved beans, canned/preserved fish/seafood, canned/preserved fruit, canned/preserved meat and meat products, canned/preserved tomatoes, canned/preserved vegetables, other canned/preserved food, confectionery, chilled fish/seafood, chilled lunch kit, chilled processed meats, fresh cut fruits, dairy, dessert mixes, rice, frozen bakery, frozen desserts, frozen meat substitutes, frozen processed fish/seafood, frozen processed potatoes, frozen processed poultry, frozen processed red meat, frozen processed vegetables, other frozen processed food, ice cream, meal replacement, noodles, oils and fats, pasta, ready meals, sauces, dressings and condiments, snack bars, soup, spreads and sweet and savory snacks.
• Home Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for laundry care, dishwashing products, surface care, chlorine bleach, toilet care, polishes, air fresheners, and insecticides.
• Beverages Packaging: Beverage packaging is the aggregation of alcoholic drinks packaging, hot drinks packaging, and soft drinks packaging.

• The price-sensitive Indian consumer seeks out pack sizes that provide the best value for money. In response to that, companies are pricing their 5kg, 8kg, and 10kg packs more competitively than their smaller packs, leading to increased interest. Zip/press closures benefitted from this trend as consumers find this type of closure convenient when buying larger pack sizes, as it ensures freshness. This is also in line with the growing demand for flexible plastic packaging, which is proving best suited to maintaining product integrity. As a result, flexible packaging grew by 10.9% by volume in 2020.
• Manufacturers are increasingly introducing a variety of pack sizes to meet varying needs of different sizes and breeds of pets and the disposable incomes of pet owners. Higher socioeconomic households often have larger homes that can cater to bigger dogs or a greater number of dogs and/or cats. Thus, companies are offering dog and cat food in bulk, such as larger pack sizes in premium packaging such as stand-up pouches and zip/press pouches of 10kg, 12kg, or 20kg, as they can easily afford and store them. On the other hand, pet owners with smaller homes prefer to own smaller pets. These householders, therefore, look for smaller pack sizes as the daily food intake of small dogs is lower in comparison to large dogs. Thus, companies are offering small pack sizes in flexible plastic and folding cartons for such consumers.

• The focus of brands has mainly been introducing different pack sizes rather than launching new pack types. But the trend is now changing as companies are investing in the development of new pack types. With consumers in India becoming more conscious about preserving the surrounding environment, sustainable packaging is another area that companies are exploring. For example, the launch of Nestlé Purina’s Beyond Simply range in flexible plastic packaging resembles recycled paper.
• Natural and premium ranges have also been on the rise as Indian pet owners in the upper or upper-middle-class segment focus on Due to the rising levels of health and wellness awareness and the burgeoning pet humanization trend, pet owners have become more conscious of the kind of products they buy. To capitalize on this, dog food manufacturers are offering premium products with organic, natural, and healthy ingredients along with premium packaging with features such as zip/press closures and handles for large packs, etc.

• E-commerce is expected to continue to see dynamic growth in sales of dog and cat food. As consumers lead increasingly busy lives, they are looking for more convenience, which has helped them offer benefits such as express delivery, customizable ordering options, and access to consumer product reviews. E-commerce platforms recorded strong growth in sales since introducing pet food online by offering a wider choice of products and pack sizes than what is available in the store. E-commerce is expected to see further development within dog and cat food over 2021-25.

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• Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers were buying large volumes of disinfectants, floor cleaners, and surface cleaners to regularly sanitize their homes. As demand was rising for larger packs, players switched to flexible plastic as it is not only seen as safer but also more affordable and long-lasting. This trend was prevalent across various home care categories, including laundry aids, gel air fresheners, powder detergents, other home insecticides, metal polish, hand dishwashing, and shoe polish. As a result, flexible packaging grew 2.0% by volume in 2020.
• Flexible packaging is used across multiple home care categories, but the use of flexible plastic and paper in laundry care packaging, such as powder detergent and bar detergent, is its biggest contributor. Insecticides and dishwashing are other categories where flexible packaging is widely used. Refill packs available in pouch formats are also becoming common on retail shelves, as consumers who are regular users of certain brands buy these packs. Manufacturers are taking advantage of this trend by launching large value packs such as 1kg, 3kg, and 5kg.

• People are buying daily-use items in bulk to avoid regular visits to the store. Categories such as powder detergents, other home insecticides, or laundry aidssaw a surge in demand for larger pack sizes. Due to the pandemic, given the decreased disposable income of the Indian population, smaller pack sizes were ubiquitous in the retail landscape.
• Sustainability and environmental concerns are driving change within the industry, as central and state governments in India have been regularly taking steps to ban single-use plastic. Manufacturers such as Hindustan Unilever, in collaboration with social entrepreneurs and partners in various Indian cities, initiated several projects to collect, segregate, and safely dispose of plastic waste. It is also taking steps through strategic partnerships to convert plastic waste into energy (electricity). The company is pledging to make 100% of plastic packaging reusable, recyclable, or compostable by 2025. They also pledge that 25% of all the plastic used will be from recycled sources by the same year.

• India currently lacks the infrastructure to process plastic waste. But the Indian Government, as well as local bodies, are expected to invest heavily in building infrastructure to process plastic waste. Awareness among consumers is expected to drive companies to shift from single-use plastic to sustainable packaging solutions. These triggers are expected to propel manufacturers into action, with most companies planning to make plastic packaging recyclable, reusable, or compostable.
• The pandemic boosted the sale of home care products through the e-commerce channel. This is expected to lead various companies to redesign their product packaging to ensure minimal waste and lighter/quicker shipping. Procter & Gamble’s Eco-Box is one such product. According to the company, the Eco-Box, which contains a sealed bag of ultra-compacted liquid fabric care, requires less packaging, up to 60% less plastic, and does not need any secondary packaging or bubble wrap.

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The Ministry of Railways issues mandates to all passengers to wear masks on trains

• According to the World Health Organization (WHO), India had 43,144,820 COVID-19 cases as of May 2022, with 524,525 deaths and 32,082 cases per million inhabitants.
• Amid a rise in cases, the railways ministry is advising all passengers to wear masks while traveling in trains, and specifically at entry and exit points.
• Kerala and Delhi continue to report the maximum number of daily cases, with the city of Delhi reporting a positive rate of 30.6% on January 14, the highest during the third wave of the pandemic, due mostly to the highly transmissible Omicron strain of the coronavirus.
• According to the WHO, as of May 24, 2022, a total of 1,941,328,608 vaccines have been administered, representing 64.1 fully vaccinated persons, per 100 people.

The chart below shows Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index.

The quarterly reported Recovery Index is a composite index that provides a quick overview of economic and consumer activity. It keeps track of the latest quarterly economic/consumer data and forecasts in key economies to gauge when economic activity and consumer demand are likely to return to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

A score of 100 and over indicates a full recovery in which economic output, the labor market, and consumer spending all return to/exceed 2019 levels.
Detailed methodology is provided in the Appendix.

Quarterly Recovery Index and Related Indicators, India

Click here for more detailed information from Euromonitor on the overview of COVID-19 conditions in India

This graph shows our “most probable” and “worst case” scenarios of how COVID-19 will impact real GDP value in India. Our “most probable” or Baseline scenario has an estimated probability of 45-60% over a one-year horizon. Our “worst case” or Pessimistic scenario has an estimated probability of 13-23% over a one-year horizon. For more details, please refer to the detailed explanation of the COVID-19 scenarios in the Scenario Definitions section.

Please note that the forecasts will be adjusted every three months, according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in this country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions (the most recent update was May 2022).

Baseline forecast refers to the “best case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

C19 Pessimistic refers to the “worst-case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 13-23%.

Inflation pressures are mounting in India

• India's economy rebounded strongly in 2021, with annual real GDP growing by 8.9%. Although the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced India's GDP prediction due to geopolitical uncertainties induced by the war in Ukraine, annual real GDP growth is likely to exceed the Asia Pacific average in 2022 and is forecast at 7.4%. Growth is predicted to be supported by an increase in private consumption as well as increased government spending, particularly on infrastructure upgrades. 
• India demonstrates that foreign direct investment (FDI) is a driver of economic progress, with inflows of 2.4% of GDP in 2020 (latest statistics available), well above the Asia Pacific average of 1.8%. Given the growing importance of the Indian economy in the global perspective, India was the world's fifth largest beneficiary of FDI in US dollars in 2020. M&A activity is a major source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, with recent agreements involving US, Canadian, and Singaporean corporations buying Indian properties. The FDI landscape in India is improving, as the government has relaxed the regulatory environment around foreign investments by reducing the number of permits necessary by the central bank.
• India's inflation rate is projected to grow significantly in the short term as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has led global food and oil prices to surge. Higher global oil prices will be one of the key reasons for higher inflation, as the country is a net energy importer. Food prices are rising as well, especially for vegetables, poultry, and edible oils, leading to increased inflation. The inflation rate reached about 7.0% in March 2022, above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upper ceiling of 2.0-6.0%. As a result, the RBI has raised benchmark interest rates ahead of schedule to keep inflation under control.

Please note that the forecasts are adjusted every three months according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions.

The graph below shows the adjusted forecasts of the percentage growth for the categories mentioned, highlighting the impact of COVID-19 between our pre-COVID-19 estimates and the “most probable” (Baseline) forecast, which has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

Baseline forecast refers to the “best case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

Cooking ingredients and staple foods set for high growth as consumers move toward packaged products

• Sauces, dressings, and condiments are expected to enjoy high demand in India, with strong growth projected through 2022, due to dry sauces, herbs, and spices being an important ingredient of many traditional Indian meals. COVID-19 has lowered demand for unpackaged items, and this trend is projected to continue during the forecast period, as people become increasingly concerned about how clean and safe the food they consume is. As a result, demand for packaged cooking items should benefit. Companies are also likely to launch new spice blends to make cooking more convenient for consumers, particularly those who are not as experienced or skilled in the kitchen.
• Rice is a staple meal in India, consumed on a daily basis, with the category of rice, pasta, and noodles remaining by far the largest in 2021/2022. Although most rice is still purchased unpackaged, there has been a significant shift toward packaged products over the review period, which has been hastened by the advent of COVID-19. The move from unpackaged to packaged rice products is expected to accelerate, due to the hygiene benefits of packaged products.

Please note that the forecasts are adjusted every three months according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions.

This graph shows our “most probable” and “worst case” estimate scenarios of how COVID-19 will impact the percentage growth for the sectors covered in India. Our “most probable,” or Baseline scenario, has an estimated probability of 45-60% over a one-year horizon. Our “worst case,” or Pessimistic scenario, has an estimated probability of 13-23% over a one-year horizon.

Baseline forecast refers to the “best case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

C19 Pessimistic refers to the “worst-case” COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 13-23%.

Alcoholic drinks continue to suffer the effects of COVID-19’s breakout

• Alcoholic beverages were one of COVID-19's hardest-hit industries in 2019/2022, with revenues falling. This was largely due to the government's decision to put a statewide ban on the manufacture and sale of alcohol during the 41-day lockdown (March 25-May 3), deeming these products non-essential. During the ban, there was an increase in illegal alcoholic beverage sales. The government decided to prohibit alcoholic beverages due to a World Health Organization (WHO) mandate claiming that alcoholic beverages decrease immunity, as well as the product's potential to exacerbate the already high number of domestic violence cases. Due to the ban, no sales were registered in both the off-trade and on-trade channels throughout the period, and the industry continues to see declining demand, down 19.2% over 2019-2022, based on the Euromonitor Baseline scenario forecast.

The following tables display adjusted market size for 2021, market size forecasts for 2022, and the percentage difference between the February 2022 and June 2022 estimates for the year 2022.

Please note that for the current quarterly update, the following table covers beauty and personal care packaging and home care packaging industries only.

HDPE expected to perform well in home care packaging

• Due to the irregular opening of offices and schools/universities throughout 2021, many home care categories saw an increase in demand. Furthermore, in 2021, there was still increased interest in cleanliness and sanitization, which benefited important categories such as surface care, toilet care, and household insecticides. As a result, key pack types in these categories, such as HDPE bottles for toilet care, HDPE bottles and PET bottles for surface care, and flexible plastic and folding cartons for household insecticides, benefited.
• As a large number of Indians adopted hybrid working methods during the pandemic, and this tendency is expected to continue, convenience will play a big part in future purchase decisions. Demand for home appliances such as automatic washing machines and dishwashers is likely to rise, and as a result, home care categories in India, such as liquid detergents and dishwasher tablets, are projected to benefit. As a result of their widespread use in this category, HDPE bottles are projected to perform well in liquid detergents, while alternative pack types, including folding cartons and plastic pouches, are expected to gain appeal as dishwasher tablets become more common in the country.
• Sustainability and environmental concerns have already influenced industrial change, with India's national and state governments taking moves to prohibit single-use plastic. In accordance with global objectives, one of the important developments projected in home care over the forecast period is a growing focus on sustainability and developing clean, green labels. A growing number of businesses are emphasizing their efforts on having a lower environmental impact, whether through modifications in packaging or product formulation. Hindustan Unilever is stepping up its sustainability initiatives; it designed an in-store vending machine for popular brands including Surf Excel, Vim, and Comfort, where customers can fill their own bottles and obtain a discount. Surf Excel also pushed the use of 100% biodegradable active ingredients in the formulation of the product and shifted to recyclable bottles produced from 50% recycled plastic.

• Beauty and Personal Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby care, bath & shower products, deodorants, hair care, color cosmetics, men's grooming products, oral hygiene, perfumes & fragrances, skin care, depilatories and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.
• Dog and Cat Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of dog and cat food packaging.
• Packaged Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby food, Bakery, canned/preserved beans, canned/preserved fish/seafood, canned/preserved fruit, canned/preserved meat and meat products, canned/preserved tomatoes, canned/preserved vegetables, other canned/preserved food, confectionery, chilled fish/seafood, chilled lunch kit, chilled processed meats, fresh cut fruits, dairy, dessert mixes, rice, frozen bakery, frozen desserts, frozen meat substitutes, frozen processed fish/seafood, frozen processed potatoes, frozen processed poultry, frozen processed red meat, frozen processed vegetables, other frozen processed food, ice cream, meal replacement, noodles, oils and fats, pasta, ready meals, sauces, dressings and condiments, snack bars, soup, spreads and sweet and savory snacks.
• Home care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for laundry care, dishwashing products, surface care, chlorine bleach, toilet care, polishes, air fresheners and insecticides.
• Beverages Packaging: Beverage packaging is the aggregation of alcoholic drinks packaging, hot drinks packaging and soft drinks packaging.

Recovery Index Methodology

Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index is a composite index that provides a quick overview of economic and consumer activity and helps businesses predict recovery in consumer demand in 48 major economies. The index takes into consideration total GDP and factors that determine consumer spending - employment, consumer spending, retail sales, and consumer confidence. Index scores measure the change relative to the average per quarter for 2019.