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The pandemic-induced restrictions, fear of contracting the virus, and fear of supply shortage of essential goods led consumers to stockpile products. As a result, large value-for-money packs and multipacks in all packaging industries benefited. On the other hand, home seclusion and travel restrictions affected impulse purchases resulting in low demand for small pack sizes and single-serve packs. The trend of more convenient and user-friendly packaging gained momentum in 2020. As the competition intensifies, players are expected to invest in packaging that is easy to open, handle, and helps keep the product’s freshness intact for longer periods.  

Sustainable packaging is fast becoming an industry standard in beauty and personal care, home care, and beverages packaging. Beauty and personal care packaging are increasingly impacted by the trend towards natural and organic beauty in Italy. Consumers who are particularly sensitive to environmental issues are opting to reduce plastic in general, especially single-use plastic, and opt more frequently for glass and aluminum/steel packaging.

In March 2019, the EU approved a directive on single-use plastic. The objective of the directive is to ensure that all plastic packaging placed on the EU market is reusable or recyclable by 2030. Single-use plastic has been banned by this directive. This creates a strong push in Italy towards sustainability. Even though Italy already has a high plastic recycling rate, it has the highest number of consumertakeaway meals in the world. The packaging of those takeaway meals are one of the areas yet to be improved to meet the requirements of these EU directives.

In the budget law of 2019, the Italian Parliament approved a tax credit for companies purchasing eco-friendly products and packaging. Companies that purchase/use rPET/aluminum/biodegradable material could get a tax credit of 36%, up to a maximum amount of EUR20,000 per beneficiary. The National Packaging Consortium (CONAI) predicts record levels of recycling in Italy in 2021, expecting around 11 million tons of recovered packaging, equal to around 83% of the amount released for consumption, of which just short of 10 million tons will be sent for recycling.

Multi-colored laundry capsules gained popularity in many European countries in recent years, as they are easier to use than traditional laundry detergents. However, being colorful, they have the potential to attract the attention of children, who may swallow them after mistaking the capsules for toys or sweets, and subsequently be poisoned. To protect children from poisoning by laundry capsules, the EU introduced stronger safety measures for liquid detergents in soluble packaging. It is now compulsory that all manufacturers must ensure that the soluble packaging of capsules available in the EU contains an aversive agent that makes children spit the capsule out within six seconds. Since this rule has been implemented, poisoning from these substances has significantly decreased in the EU.

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• Beauty and Personal Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby care, bath & shower products, deodorants, hair care, color cosmetics, men's grooming products, oral hygiene, perfumes & fragrances, skincare, depilatories, and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.
• Dog and Cat Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of dog and cat food packaging.
• Packaged Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby food, Bakery, canned/preserved beans, canned/preserved fish/seafood, canned/preserved fruit, canned/preserved meat and meat products, canned/preserved tomatoes, canned/preserved vegetables, other canned/preserved food, confectionery, chilled fish/seafood, chilled lunch kit, chilled processed meats, fresh cut fruits, dairy, dessert mixes, rice, frozen bakery, frozen desserts, frozen meat substitutes, frozen processed fish/seafood, frozen processed potatoes, frozen processed poultry, frozen processed red meat, frozen processed vegetables, other frozen processed food, ice cream, meal replacement, noodles, oils and fats, pasta, ready meals, sauces, dressings and condiments, snack bars, soup, spreads and sweet and savory snacks.
• Home Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for laundry care, dishwashing products, surface care, chlorine bleach, toilet care, polishes, air fresheners, and insecticides. 
• Beverages Packaging: Beverage packaging is the aggregation of alcoholic drinks packaging, hot drinks packaging, and soft drinks packaging.

• Dog and cat food packaging continues to see a rising demand for smaller pack sizes such as 50g, 80g, 200g, and 375g. The population of smaller breeds of pets is increasing n Italy. Also, owners are preferring to buy single-serve packs as it is more convenient to use and dispose of. As smaller packs and single-serve units are mostly packed in flexible packaging, it grew by 5.9% by volume in dog and cat food packaging in 2020.
• Italian pet owners are more interested in a greater level of convenience when choosing pet food. As a result, they are opting for more innovative packaging formats such as stand-up pouches with closures that better preserve the product's freshness and provide a longer shelf life. They are favoring smaller pack sizes of stand-up pouches as this helps in controlling portion sizes and limits wastage. As a result, stand-up pouches grew by 6.6% by volume in dog and cat food packaging in 2020.

• With more consumers viewing dogs and cats as family members, rather than simply as pets or animals, they are paying more attention and money for dog and cat food. This resulted in the growing demand for higher-quality offerings featuring natural ingredients such as mono protein and grain-free diets. This trend boosted premium packaging formats such as stand-up pouches, single-serve packs, and rigid containers.
• Cat treats are witnessing growth as owners are rewarding and pampering their cats by offering cat treats to create a bond with them. This is reflected in squeezable plastic tubes as it is one of the most dynamic pack types across cat treat packaging, which grew by 32.6% by volume in 2020. This can be attributed to the fact that this pack format provides an opportunity for cat owners to bond with their pets by hand feeding them from the tube.

• Pet humanization and premiumization trends are expected to continue in dog and cat food packaging over 2021-25. As a part of the premiumization trend, owners are expected to prefer smaller pack sizes as well as single-serve packs of premium/quality food as they are relatively affordable, minimize wastage of food, and keep the product fresh. Consumers are likely to pay more for mono-protein food, free from grain and gluten products, and options without additives and colorants. See-through packaging is also expected to gain ground as consumers are likely to prefer to be able to see their food.
• Sustainability is likely to gain momentum over 2021-25. Increasing awareness among consumers is likely to boost the importance of packaging as it is expected to help manufacturers stand out from the crowd. Pack design and labeling are likely to play an important role in conveying ingredients, origins, sustainability of pack type, etc. Pack labeling is expected to be used to provide transparency by emphasizing the sustainability of production, particularly in the case of premium products.

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• During the COVID-19 pandemic, consumers preferred the best value-for-money options like larger packs such as 800ml, 650ml, 500ml, and multipacks of 6/12 units. The use of plastic pouches as stand-up pouches and refill packs is witnessing dynamic growth in Italian home care packaging. Consumers prefer stand-up pouches as they are lightweight, can be opened and closed multiple times, and are easy to recycle. As a result, plastic pouches grew by 22.5% by volume in home care packaging in 2020.
• Growing consumer demand for sustainable and lightweight packaging has contributed to the 5.3% growth of flexible packaging formats within home care packaging in 2020 in terms of volume. For manufacturers, its production uses less energy andit reduces harmful greenhouse gas emissions. While retailers prefer it because it is lighter than rigid plastic bottles and improves logistics and distribution costs. It is also easy to transport from warehouse to store as well, as in the case of online orders that are shipped directly to consumers’ homes.

• PET bottles continued to dominate liquid detergents and dishwashing due to the advantages it provides in terms of durability and sturdiness. PET bottles are a cost-effective option for manufacturers that became an important concern during the pandemic. PET can be easily recycled and reused, thus, PET bottles are favored by manufacturers as well as consumers for their versatility.
• Tablets remained a popular product type in laundry aids as it provides convenience for consumers and comes in an environmentally friendly pack type, folding cartons. With increasing awareness of the harmful effects of some packaging materials on the environment, consumers are consciously choosing more environmentally friendly pack types.

• Refill packs are expected to gain momentum over 2021-25 as they help ease the burden of expenditures on home care products and are seen as more environmentally friendly than buying a new PET or HDPE container. Refill stations or vending machines are expected to be launched by a few brands. Companies are expecting to invest in the research and development of refill packs and reusable packs. Along with that, recycling facilities are likely to see more investment by private players, as well as the government, as Italy lacks sites at which plastic can be collected for recycling.
• The post-pandemic period over 2021-25 is expected to see rising demand for smaller pack sizes that are convenient for quick usage and can be easily disposed of. As a result, the use of small plastic pouches of 15/24 tablets is expected to continue to see dynamic growth in home care packaging, and is likely to be favored by consumers, retailers, e-commerce players, and manufacturers.

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Traveling with masks is still compulsory, while other travel limitations have been eliminated or adjusted.       

• According to the World Health Organization (WHO), Italy’s total cases amount with 166,264 deaths and 290,275 cases per million inhabitants as of May 2022.
• On March 1, 2022, Italy's border regulations were greatly eased. Instead of being ranked by risk level, countries are now ranked based on an individual's vaccination status. This means that anyone can enter Italy without quarantining for any purpose if they are fully vaccinated or have recovered from COVID-19 lately. This includes visitors from nations previously on List E, who were only permitted to travel for necessary purposes.
• FFP2 masks must still be worn by everyone flying to or from Italy. Passengers must also show proof of completing a first vaccine round within the last nine months, or a complete cycle with booster, which can be older than nine months. Alternatively, individuals can show a certificate of recovery from COVID-19 issued within the last six months, or a negative test result, taken within 48 hours (antigen) or 72 hours (PCR) of departure.
• According to the WHO, as of May 15, 2022, a total of 136,206,350 vaccines have been administered in Italy, representing 79.5 fully vaccinated people, out of 100 in the country.

The chart below shows Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index.

The quarterly reported Recovery Index is a composite index that provides a quick overview of economic and consumer activity. It keeps track of the latest quarterly economic/consumer data and forecasts in key economies to gauge when economic activity and consumer demand are likely to return to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.

A score of 100 and over indicates a full recovery in which economic output, the labor market, and consumer spending all return to/exceed 2019 levels.
Detailed methodology is provided in the Appendix.

Quarterly Recovery Index and Related Indicators, Italy

Click here for more detailed information from Euromonitor on the overview of COVID-19 conditions in Italy

This graph shows our “most probable” and “worst-case” estimate scenarios of how COVID-19 will impact real GDP in Italy. Our “most probable” or Baseline scenario has an estimated probability of 45-60% over a one-year horizon. Our “worst case” or Pessimistic scenario has an estimated probability of 13-23% over a one-year horizon. For more details, please refer to the detailed explanation of the COVID-19 scenarios in the Scenario Definitions section.

Please note that the forecasts will be adjusted every three months, according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in this country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions (the most recent update was May 2022).

Baseline forecast refers to the "best case" COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

C19 Pessimistic refers to the "worst-case" COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 13-23%.

Strong capital investment to support further economic recovery

• In 2021, Italy's real GDP expanded by 6.9% supported by improved domestic demand, attributable to pent-up private spending, increased public consumption, and gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Despite the risks of new infection waves and rising inflation, private consumption is likely to continue to recover in 2022, with the labor market progressively recovering and pent-up demand continuing to be released.
• In value terms, healthcare and social services, utilities and recycling, and business services are expected to be some of the primary industries driving economic growth in Italy between 2021 and 2026. These industries' turnover is expected to expand by 12.3%, 14.0% and 8.6%, respectively, throughout the forecast period.
• Rising energy and commodity prices, as well as rising cost pressures due to persistent supply restrictions, drove inflation in Italy to 1.9% in 2021, up from deflation (negative inflation) of -0.1% the previous year. In 2021, the most significant price rises were seen in alcoholic drinks and tobacco products, food and non-alcoholic beverages, and hospitality services, among other important consumer goods and services.

Please note that the forecasts are adjusted every three months according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions.

The graph below displays the adjusted forecasts of the percentage growth for the categories mentioned, highlighting the impact of COVID-19 between our pre-COVID-19 estimates and the “most probable” (Baseline) forecast, which has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

Baseline forecast refers to the "best case" COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

Alcoholic drinks endured the effect of the pandemic, supported by rising off-trade demand

• Closures of stores and foodservice outlets during the pandemic had two repercussions in terms of alcoholic beverages. First, general out-of-home consumption of alcoholic beverages decreased, while off-trade demand increased dramatically. Spirits, which are commonly consumed in on-trade settings, were the most negatively affected. However, off-trade demand for wine, cider, and, to a lesser extent beer, increased significantly in 2021, resulting in substantially faster off-trade growth than in prior years during the review period. According to Euromonitor’s Baseline scenario forecast, alcoholic drinks witnessed 12.6% growth over 2019-2022.
• Some categories fared better than others within alcoholic drinks, with wine, for example, experiencing the smallest reduction in volume, and RTDs experiencing the largest. Due to the general health and wellness trend, which surged in the aftermath of the pandemic, as consumers became concerned about the link between obesity and virus immunity and susceptibility, low-alcohol and non-alcoholic beverages grew in popularity.

Please note that the forecasts are adjusted every three months according to the expected number of cases, recoveries, and deaths due to COVID-19 in the country, as well as shifting socioeconomic conditions.

This graph shows our “most probable” and “worst-case” estimate scenarios of how COVID-19 will impact the percentage growth for the sectors mentioned in Italy. Our “most probable,” or Baseline scenario, has an estimated probability of 45-60% over a one-year horizon. Our “worst case,” or Pessimistic scenario, has an estimated probability of 13-23% over a one-year horizon.

Baseline forecast refers to the "best case" COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 45-60%.

C19 Pessimistic refers to the "worst-case" COVID-19 scenario forecast that has an estimated probability of 13-23%.

Diminishing concerns about the virus and return to normalcy drive a lower need for beauty and personal care products

• According to Euromonitor’s Baseline scenario forecast, the emergence of COVID-19 had a substantial influence on value sales of beauty and personal care in Italy over 2019 -2022, with a 2.6% value decline. Following the price decline in 2020, most distribution channels (particularly beauty specialist retailers) increased unit prices as players sought to make up for some losses, resulting in diminishing demand.
• Categories that had benefited from the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, such as bath and shower, witnessed a downturn in 2021 as sales stabilized. This was attributed in part to a decrease in demand for hand sanitizers and liquid soap, with concerns over hand cleanliness easing significantly as a result of Italy's successful vaccination campaign and a decrease in cases. Similarly, 2021 also saw a decline in hair care, mainly due to the drop in demand for colorants, with consumers returning to hair salons to receive professional hair coloring and treatment services.

The following tables display adjusted market sizes for 2021, market size forecasts for 2022, and the percentage difference between the February 2022 and June 2022 estimates for the year 2022.

Please note that for the current quarterly update, the following table covers beauty and personal care packaging and home care packaging industries only.

Sustainability is becoming ever more important in Italy’s packaging industry

• Concerns about the environment and sustainability are becoming more prevalent among all stakeholders. However, there are a number of obstacles to overcome in this field. Retailers, for example, continue to prioritize price as they believe that low costs are what customers desire, despite their growing environmental concerns. The cost of recycled PET is higher than that of new plastic, which is limiting the adoption of recycled plastic bottles in many industries. Furthermore, with just a few plastic bottle manufacturers equipped to produce PET bottles with handles, most bottles with handles are made of HDPE.
• Winni's Naturel from Madel is one of the green home care brands being launched in Italy that has been emphasizing how environmental sustainability practices are extended across all its life cycle operations, with the goal of being the leader in sustainable home care. Furthermore, Icefor, a dishwashing line with the Ecolabel mark on its packaging, uses green packaging that is lighter in weight to reduce greenhouse gas emissions during shipment.
• Within home care packaging too, Henkel invested in upgrading the packaging of its detergents to make it transparent and 100% recyclable, decreasing its carbon impact by 600 tonnes of plastics. Among other efforts to be both unique and appealing to environmentally-conscious consumers through packaging efforts; Henkel's new General Eco concept is a liquid detergent presented in 100% recycled PET (rPET) bottles.

• Beauty and Personal Care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby care, bath & shower products, deodorants, hair care, color cosmetics, men's grooming products, oral hygiene, perfumes & fragrances, skin care, depilatories and sun care. Black market sales and travel retail are excluded.
• Dog and Cat Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of dog and cat food packaging.
• Packaged Food Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for baby food, Bakery, canned/preserved beans, canned/preserved fish/seafood, canned/preserved fruit, canned/preserved meat and meat products, canned/preserved tomatoes, canned/preserved vegetables, other canned/preserved food, confectionery, chilled fish/seafood, chilled lunch kit, chilled processed meats, fresh cut fruits, dairy, dessert mixes, rice, frozen bakery, frozen desserts, frozen meat substitutes, frozen processed fish/seafood, frozen processed potatoes, frozen processed poultry, frozen processed red meat, frozen processed vegetables, other frozen processed food, ice cream, meal replacement, noodles, oils and fats, pasta, ready meals, sauces, dressings and condiments, snack bars, soup, spreads and sweet and savory snacks.
• Home care Packaging: This is the aggregation of packaging for laundry care, dishwashing products, surface care, chlorine bleach, toilet care, polishes, air fresheners and insecticides.
• Beverages Packaging: Beverage packaging is the aggregation of alcoholic drinks packaging, hot drinks packaging and soft drinks packaging.

Recover Index Methodology

Euromonitor International’s Recovery Index is a composite index that provides a quick overview of economic and consumer activity and helps businesses predict recovery in consumer demand in 48 major economies. The index takes into consideration total GDP and factors that determine consumer spending - employment, consumer spending, retail sales, and consumer confidence. Index scores measure the change relative to the average per quarter for 2019.